The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 downward to 3.0%, attributing the downgrade to falling global crude oil prices.
This update was disclosed in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C.
The latest forecast marks a 0.2 percentage point drop from the Fund’s earlier projection of 3.2%, signaling concerns over Nigeria’s revenue stability and external vulnerabilities amid oil market fluctuations.
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According to the report: “For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2% in 2026.
“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices.”
The IMF also noted similar economic pressures affecting other major African economies: “In South Africa, the growth forecast is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
In a more drastic revision, the IMF also slashed South Sudan’s 2025 forecast: “South Sudan has a downward revision of 31.5 percentage points for 2025 due to delays in resuming oil production following damage to a key pipeline.