By Chidera Orji

In a first poll ahead of the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Tinubu has taken a slim lead over Nigeria Democratic Cingress (NDC) candidate, Peter Obi, in the latest Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, beating him by 1,067 responses.

The online poll, which ended on September 7, had 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final dataset.

Tinubu attracted 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi secured 23,402 responses, or 33.86 per cent.

Former Vice-President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Atiku Abubakar occupied the third position with 18,430 responses, accounting for 26.67 per cent of the total participation.

The figures put Tinubu 1,067 responses ahead of Obi, equivalent to a margin of about 1.54 percentage points.

READ ALSO:Titi Abubakar : People suffering under Tinubu, says Nigerians will ask for Atiku’s second term

The geographical spread of the poll also pointed to notable shifts from the voting pattern recorded during the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu, who carried 12 states in the 2023 election, emerged as the leading candidate in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in the online poll.

Obi and Atiku, meanwhile, recorded the highest number of responses in eight states each.

The poll indicated particularly strong changes in several northern states, with Tinubu gaining the lead in areas where he did not win the presidential vote in 2023.

He led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, all of which were won by Atiku in the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu also topped the poll in Kano, where the New Nigeria Peoples Party candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, won the presidential election in 2023.

At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu emerged ahead in the South-West, North-West and North-Central.

Obi recorded his strongest showing in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku dominated the North-East.

In the South-West, Tinubu polled 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of participation in the zone.

He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, accounting for 43.10 per cent of the region’s total.

In the North-Central, the President garnered 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the votes recorded in the zone.

Obi’s strongest regional performance came from the South-East, where he secured 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the total.

The Labour Party candidate also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, accounting for 41.48 per cent of participation in the region.

Atiku’s strongest showing was in the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of the region’s total.

Despite Tinubu’s wider spread across the country, the poll showed a closely fought contest between the three leading candidates.

The 1,067-response gap separating Tinubu and Obi reflected the narrow difference between the two front-runners at the national level.

Some state-level results were even tighter, particularly where participation was relatively low.

In Kogi, for example, Tinubu recorded 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, out of just 110 responses.

The one-response gap between Tinubu and Atiku in Kogi highlights the need for caution in interpreting results from states with small numbers of participants.

In the Federal Capital Territory, Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving the President an advantage of 321 responses. Atiku recorded 3,954 responses.

Rivers also produced a relatively close contest, with Tinubu receiving 975 responses, Obi 892 and Atiku 568, leaving an 83-response gap between the first and second candidates.

Among the other contenders, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Anita Zugwai-Chukwu polled 18 responses, Sandy Onor recorded six, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu received two responses.

A total of 638 participants selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 chose “Other Candidate.”

The distribution of responses showed that a national lead did not necessarily correspond with dominance across all geopolitical zones or states.

While Tinubu led nationally and in three geopolitical zones, Obi maintained a commanding position in the South-East and recorded the highest number of responses in the South-South. Atiku, meanwhile, remained strongest in the North-East.

The poll’s participation was also unevenly distributed, with Lagos and the FCT alone accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses.
The final dataset included 56 responses from Nigerians in the diaspora, but these were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical-zone tallies.

(VANGUARD)

By Chidera Orji

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has unveiled a proposal to subsidise crude oil supplied to Nigerian refineries as part of measures to reduce the cost of petrol if he wins the 2027 presidential election.

Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), said the proposal would focus on supporting domestic refining rather than subsidising imported petroleum products.

He explained that the policy became necessary amid recent concerns raised by the Dangote Refinery over government-imposed petrol pump prices.

The former vice-president, in a statement issued on Friday by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, accused the Tinubu administration of deliberately presenting his proposal as an attempt to compel private refineries to sell petrol below their production costs.

“Dangote raised a legitimate business concern. The presidency turned it into a campaign of fear,” the statement reads.

“A refinery that has invested billions of dollars cannot be commanded to sell indefinitely below cost and absorb the losses.

“That would be reckless, economically destructive and unfair to any private investor. But that is precisely why our proposal is different.”

Atiku said his proposed model would redirect government support from imported petrol to crude oil supplied to qualifying domestic refineries.

“We are restoring subsidy through a production subsidy model, not an import subsidy model,” he said.

“The difference is simple enough for every Nigerian to understand. Import subsidy spends public money supporting petrol refined abroad and brought into Nigeria.

“Production subsidy supports crude refined here in Nigeria so that Nigerian refineries can produce fuel more cheaply and Nigerians can pay less.”

According to him, the approach would be similar to government interventions aimed at lowering the cost of food production by supporting local farmers rather than subsidising imported food.

“That is exactly what we are proposing for fuel. We are restoring subsidy but moving it from importation to production. The subsidy follows the barrel refined in Nigeria,” he said.

He said the arrangement would involve reducing the cost of crude supplied to eligible domestic refineries through a transparent and capped system subject to independent verification.

“If the crude entering a refinery becomes cheaper, the cost of producing petrol should also come down,” he said.

“That reduction should then reach the average Nigerian while preserving legitimate refining costs and a reasonable commercial margin.”

Atiku maintained that government assistance aimed at lowering production costs should not be confused with forcing refinery operators to sell their products at a loss.

“The Tinubu Presidency knows this. If it pretends otherwise, then it is not confused. It is deliberately misleading Nigerians,” Atiku.

The ADC candidate stressed that the proposed subsidy would be restricted to crude refined within Nigeria.

“Under our plan, support will be tied strictly to crude refined in Nigeria. Nigerian refineries will benefit. Nigerian workers will benefit. Nigerian businesses will benefit. Nigerian consumers will benefit,” he said.

“If you do not refine in Nigeria, you do not qualify. This is not a subsidy for foreign refineries. It is not a subsidy for importers. It is not a subsidy for middlemen. It is a subsidy for Nigerian production.”

Atiku also said his administration would not compel domestic refineries to sell petrol at an arbitrarily fixed pump price.

“If government wants to provide additional relief beyond what lower crude-input costs can sustainably deliver, then government must pay for that relief openly,” he said.

“It must be budgeted. It must be capped. It must be audited. Nigerians must know exactly what is being spent and what they are receiving in return.”

He argued that government should bear any additional cost arising from a decision to provide consumers with petrol below the sustainable market price, rather than shifting the burden to refinery operators.

“You cannot announce a politically convenient petrol price and quietly dump the cost on the refinery,” he said.

“That is not policy. That is confiscation by another name.”

From Philip Dazaang (Jos)

Plateau state governor, Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang had directed the immediate mobilisation of drugs and other medical commodities to health facilities to combat the dreaded diphtheria disease in the state

The disease, which was first reported in Kano state had spread rapidly to Plateau and Katsina states with several deaths reported.

The Director-General of the Plateau State Drug and Medical Commodity Management Agency, PSDMA, Pharmacist Kim Jerry Bot, said that government intervention was already ongoing at JUTH and PSSH.

Bot added that the state government acted swiftly following reports of the outbreak, even as he noted that efforts were underway to extend the support to other affected health facilities.

The Plateau State Government on Wednesday said the death toll from diphtheria has risen to 27, while suspected cases have reached 303.

The state’s epidemiologist, Dr Maren Damulak, disclosed the figures while speaking with newsmen in Jos, the state capital.

Determined to contend the spread of the disease, the Plateau State Government had last Sunday ordered the temporary closure of all primary and secondary schools following the detection of suspected cases in Jos North, Jos South, Bassa and Wase Local Government Areas.

The measure, according to the government, was aimed at reducing transmission among students and school staff while health authorities strengthen surveillance and response activities.

Dr Damulak said most of the suspected cases were recorded in Jos North LGA with Rikkos community identified as one of the worst-affected areas.

“As of today, the cases have increased from 149 to 303. The death toll has also increased from 23 to 27. The highest cases of the disease are in Jos North. 99% of the cases are in Jos North.

“Most of the people that were affected were those that did not take diphtheria vaccine. Apart from Jos North, we also have few cases from other LGAs. Children account for a significant proportion of those affected,” Damulak said.

He, however, assured that the state government is making efforts to contain the outbreak of the disease.

He further disclosed that some suspected patients are currently receiving treatment at the Jos University Teaching Hospital, JUTH, and Plateau State Specialist Hospital, PSSH, where isolation facilities have been provided.

In Jos North, the local government council has deployed additional logistics, including motorcycles, to enhance contact tracing, field surveillance and community outreach.